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Bloomberg
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1) Stocks Rally Pushes On With Fed Speakers in Focus: Markets Wrap
*Pound edges higher after UK economy exits mild recession
*S&P 500 trades within 1% of record high after US jobless data
- Stocks rallied on earnings optimism and US data that supported the case for interest-rate cuts.
- A raft of Federal Reserve speakers are slated for Friday as traders await a key US inflation print next week
- Asia: Hang Seng advanced following news that regulators were considering a proposal to exempt individual investors from paying taxes on dividends earned from Hong Kong stocks bought via Stock Connect.
- Onshore Chinese stocks fluctuated as investors assessed a report saying US President Joe Biden’s administration is poised to unveil a sweeping decisionon China tariffs as soon as next week.
2) Oil Extends Two-day Climb on Renewed Optimism for US Rate Cuts
*Brent set for weekly gain holding above 100-day moving average
*Crude ‘will remain beholden to OPEC supply policies,’ ANZ says
- Brent pushed above $84 a barrel after a two-day climb that added about 1%, rebounding from the 100-day moving average.
- Initial applications for US unemployment benefits increased to the highest level since August, supporting the case for looser monetary policy. The dollar slipped on Thrsday, making commodities more attractive for most buyers.
- Crude’s latest gains mask relatively muted price action, with futures set to log their smallest weekly trading range since March. Prices remain higher this year, aided by OPEC+ supply cuts, solid global demand, and recurrent tensions in the Middle East.
3) Vanguard Joins Pimco in Seeing More BOJ Hikes Than Market
*Firm’s international rates head sees BOJ at 0.75% by end-2024
*Vanguard boosted short position in yen after recent rally
4) About the’T+1’ Rule Making US Stock Trades Settle in a Day
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Bloomberg
1) A $600 Billion Wall of Debt Looms Over Market’s Riskiest Stocks
*Delay in rate cuts disrupts much-awaited rally in small caps
*Hedge funds hold one of the biggest short positions on record
- US small-cap stocks are as cheap as they’ve been in decades, but with a more than half trillion dollar mountain of debt looming over the next five years, it’s going to take a significant risk-on signal from the Federal Reserve to entice investors.
- Firms in the small-capitalization Russell 2000 Index hold a total of $832 billion in debt, 75% of which - or $620 billion - needs to be refinanced through 2029, data compiled by Bloomberg shows. For comparison, companies in the big-cap S&P 500 Index have just 50% of their obligations due by then.
- “No, despite attractive valuations, we won’t be buying yet,” said Marjia Veitmane, senior multi-asset strategist at State Street Global Markets. “We don’t like small caps as they are much more sensitive to an economic slowdown, have much higher cost of funding, and margins are likely to be squeezed more.”
- In particular, smaller companies tend to have a considerable amount of floating-rate debt, usually in the form of loans, because they often aren’t big enough to borrow in the bond market. That means their interest expenses often reset higher soon after the Fed hikes rates, while a bigger company with fixed-rate bond debt may wait longer before higher rates have a significant impact on their borrowing costs.
2) Wall Street Is Sending a Bullish Signal for S&P 500 Earnings.
*Analysts lift profit forecasts at fastest pace in two years
*Cyclical sectors have led the adjustment in profit forecasts
- Analysts are ratcheting up earnings forecasts for the current quarter at the swiftest pace in two years, suggesting that the worst of Corporate America’s profit slump may be firmly in the rear-view mirror.
- With nearly 90% of S&P 500 Index companies having reported for this earnings season, upbeat first-quarter results having reported for this earnings season, upbeat first-quarter results have pushed Wall Street to boost profit projections for the three months through June, Bloomberg Intelligence data show.
- A resilient economy and robust consumer demand are poised to support earnings growth for a third straight quarter, following three quarters of profit contraction. Two key groups with strong links to the economic cycle - energy and materials companies - have led the upward adjustments for profits, according to BI data.
- “This is a good sign for the direction of US stocks this year because it signals that more analysts are revising company estimates higher after realizing prior forecasts might be too pessimistic, helping to support operating margins,” said Wendy Soong, senior analyst at BI.
- The benchmark gauge for American equities is on track to post 7.1% earnings growth for the January-March period, topping analysts’ preseason estimates of 3.8%
- A closely watched indicator known as earnings-revision momentum - a gauge of upward-to-downward changes to expected per-share earnings over the next 12 months-has reached its highest level since September, BI data show. This indicates that more hikes to analysts’ forecasts are likely coming in the weeks ahead, according to BI’s Soong.
- It’s an encouraging prospect for a market that is brushing up against record highs even as the Federal Reserve signals it intends to keep interest rates higher for longer.
- “This definitely is a positive sign because I want to invest in companies where estimates are going up since those stocks have favourable profit outlooks,” said Thomas Martin, senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments, whose firm is snapping up shares of industrial companies that are tied to data-center infrastructure businesses.
- That said, the economic backdrop has shown some cracks of late, a potentially worrisome development for the profit outlook. US employers scaled back hiring in April and the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose.
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