5월 셋째주 블룸버그를 매일매일 읽고 정리한 내용입니다.
5/13
Bloomberg
1) Dividend Payouts Are Latest Sign of Big Tech’s Financial Muscle
2) Asian stocks eye sluggish start after china data, tariff fears
- Equity benchmarks in hong kong, Shanghai, Australia and Japan declined, while US and European futures were little changed.
- Japanese bonds fell after the central bank offered to purchase a smaller amount of government debt than a previous auction.
- Chinese industrial prices extended a long decline and credit shrank for the first time in April as government bond sales slowed, data published on the weekend showed.
- “no need to panic- The big miss in credit data in April is largely due to technical reasons which are transitory, rather than to a sharp deterioration in the underlying economy”
- Bloomberg’s dollar index and benchmark 10-year Treasuries were both little changed.
- “As long as the labor market remains tight, consumer resilience could continue to dampen hopes of inflation cooling off”
- Commodities such as gold and oil are also in focus Monday after President Vladimir Putin replaced his long-serving defense minister in a surprise move as Russian forces seek to capitalize on a battlefield advantage and make advances in the war against Ukraine.
3) blackrock warns weak yen deters foreigners from japanese stocks
- yen’s weakness is turning foreign investors away from Japanese stocks
- Nikkei 225 Stock Average has jumped 14% this year, outperforming. However for dollar-based investors, gains shrink to just above 3% due to weak yen.
- Yen’s future performance depends more on actions of the Fed than the BoJ. Yen may gradually weaken to 170 range if the fed doesn’t cut rates. Alternatively, a level of 130 to 135 is “entirely conceivable” if there are rate cuts
- Hedge funds are betting on an even weaker yen. Short term funds started buying option in the 160 to 161 range
4) bullish case for indian rupee dented by RBI’s Intervention Fears
5) Five key chars to watch in Global Commodity Markets this week
6) Bond Traders Wait for CPI to Fuel- or Doom- the Market’s rally
7) World’s top coffee, soy and sugar supplier wants to rule cocoa, too
8) a doomsday recession mentality is keeping the S&P 500 strong
9)Iraq says extending output cuts is decision for opec
10) cooling core inflation will offer minimal relife to fed
11) Hong Kong and china stocks are on a tear. Should you invest?
12) Strong dollar creates another inflation headache: Trade tracker
13) Global chips battle intensifies with $81 billion s subsidy surge
- investments by the US seek more than just counter China, which still trails the rest of the world by several generations. Also follow up SK and taiwan
- EU has forged $46.3 billion plan to expand local manufacturing capacity
- Germany an Intel Fab planned in Magdeburg, TSMC joint venture
- Other European countries have struggled to fund major projects or attract companies, Spain announced $13 billion toward semiconductors. Emerging economies such as India(Tata Group bid). Saudi trying to diversify fossil fuel-dependent economy.
14) Stubborn inflation poses risk to recently upgraded US Forcecasts for Economic Growth
- “If inflation remains sticky, that actually introduces significant downside risk to the growth outlook because labor markets aren’t in the same place,” said Neil Dutta, head of US economics at Renaissance Macro. “You’re going to have to start worrying about what that means for real incomes.”
- That’s why so much is riding on the data due this week, especially amid signs the labor market is cooling. A monthly employment report published on May 3 showed average hourly earnings rose just 2.8% annualized in the three months through April, the least since the first quarter of 2021. And a widely-followed leading indicator of wages — the quits rate — points to more deceleration ahead.
- Meanwhile, excess savings accumulated during the pandemic — another major driver of consumer spending in recent years — may finally have been exhausted as of March, according to a recent San Francisco Fed estimate.
-
15) Chinal probes local hedge fund for suspected illegal activities
5/14
Bloomberg
1) Macron Floats Big Bank Mergers to Transform EU
- France is home to several biggest banks in the euro area.
- Cross border mergers have several issues, such as when in financial crisis, individual governments have to stem in and rescue their domestic banks, exposing the fractures in the European market.
- The region’s political leaders have made some progress in forging closer ties as response to the subsequent sovereign debt crisis, handing oversight powers to the European Central Bank and establishing a joint authority for winding down failed lenders.
- The final piece of Europe’s so-called banking union-joint deposit insurance - is missing. Bankers frequently say this hinders cross-border mergers in the bloc because funds in one country aren’t deemed to be as safe as those in another.
- Also adds muscles in Europe as a competitor.
- Macron has established credentials as a reformer since seven years ago:
- Rebuilt french credibility by bring the budget deficit within EU limits & pushing through pro-business labor reforms that echoed Germany’s efforts from the early 2000s.
- The charm offensive paid dividends, helping people France to the top of rankings for attracting large investment projects.
- Combined with tax cuts for businesses and labor overhauls to make it easier to hire and fire, that drove unemployment to near 40-year lows and pushed France’s growth rate above European peers.
- Macron’s economics fraying at the edges now as the economy struggles to pick up from the inflation crises and the jobsless rate had stopped falling at a level well above Macron’s self-set target of full-emplyment. Debt is on upward trajectory.
2) Ex- UBS risk manager points finger squarely at archegos ‘lies’
- “The internal debate at UBS over Archegos as a client and how Hwang’s family office allegedly deceived the bank about its investments.”
- Hwang is accused of lying to his counterparty banks as a part of a scheme to inflate the value of stocks on which Archegos had placed highly leverage derivative bets. Credit Suisse, Group AG, UBS, Morgan Stanley lost $10b when Achegos imploded in March 2021
3) Markets Wrap: Hong Kong stocks rise before earnings, asia muted
4) NYSE President sees more US companies pursuing public offerings
5) Cocoa Plunges 19% as rain forecasts stoke market volatility
6) CK Asset Cuts Prices for HK Houses by a third to boost sales
- Hong kong developer CK Asset Holdings Ltd. has slashed prices for some homes by a third, as market competition ehats up.
- Offering discounts for 28 units in this project called #LYOA located in the New Territories.
- After the housing market weakness in the past year, the city’s developers are pushing to clear inventory with price cuts.
7) Japan’s Suzuki sees need to keep close coordination with BOJ
- Japanese Minister of Finance Shunichi Suzuki stressed importance of coordination between gov and BOJ
- Suzuki’s remarks came amid mounting speculation in the market that the weak yen may prompt the BOJ to bring forward its next interest rate hike after authorities conducted the bank’s first increase in 17 years in March. Low interest rates in Japan are one of the main factors driving the currency’s weakness.
8) UK job vacancy data may be losing value as economic indicator
- Doubts about the number of unfilled jobs
- Low cost of averstisng for staff online have left more slots advertised for longer than previous years. This inflating the number of vacancies.
9) Euro-Zone economy seen picking up pace as germany heals
5/15
Bloomberg
1) Global Stocks Rally Ahead of US Inflation Data
- US futures steady, amid optimism that Wednesday’s key US inflation report won’t undermine the case for Fed’s interest-rate-cuts.
S&P 500 advanced despite Jerome Powell’s signals that interest rates will be higher for longer and a mixed reading on producer inflation.
- Core CPI is slowing
- European shares rise; Treasury yields dip
- Individual stocks in Europe:
Burberry Group Plc declined after reporting a slump in sales, dragging the consumer goods sector lower.
ABN Ambro Bank NV dropped more than 5% after unchanged guidance,
while Finnish refiner Neste Oyj slumped on a downward revision on sales margins for its renewable products.
- US: Meme stock rally set to continue with GameStop Corp.
- MSCI All Country World Index extended its longest run of gains since January.
- Commodities: oil held gains after an industry report showed shrinking US stockpiles, overshadowing a softer demand growth outlook by the International Energy Agency for the rest of the year.
- Copper futures in New York hit record on short squeeze
→ That’s prompted a scramble to divert metal in other regions to US shores.
- Gold extended gains after rising almost 1% on Tuesday.
Key events this week:
- US CPI, retail sales, business inventories, empire manufacturing, Wednesday
- Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speaks, Wednesday
- Japan GDP, industrial production, Thursday
- US housing starts, initial jobless claims, industrial production, Thursday
- Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speaks, Thursday
- Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester speaks, Thursday
- Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks, Thursday
- China property prices, retail sales, industrial production, Friday
- Eurozone CPI, Friday
2) Russia’s war on Ukraine Raises Debt Cost for EU’s East
- Governments cite risks of war spreading. EBRD economist says
- Yield spreads over bunds widened after Russia invaded Ukraine
3) Dubai Advisory Setting Up Shop in Saudi Arabia Upbeat on FDI
- Lack of foreign investment won’t last forever: deNovo
“It’s only a matter of time before Saudi Arabia starts attracting more foreign direct investment to support Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s economic diversification drive”, boutique from deNovo Partners
- More regulation, clarity needed to draw overseas money
Changes in regulation and clarity on rules around bankruptcy law, for example, are needed to draw in greater sums of international capital, she said in a Bloomberg television interview on the sidelines of the Qatar Economic Forum.
- some changes → but there’s still a “issue of perception” and “issue of practicality”
- goals seem out of reach right now, “But they’re certainly heading in the right direction and doing a lot”
4) EM Fund With 30% Return Bets on Turkish Small- Caps
- Turkish stocks attractive over long term, advisers say.
A top-performing emerging-market fund is betting on a rally in Turkish small-cap stocks as the country brings down inflation.
The Evlin Emerging Frontier FUnd, which has beaten 99% of similar funds in the past five years, has snapped up shares of Escort Teknoloji, an investor in tech startups, as well as electricity company Orge Enerji.
- Turkey’s investment climate is improving: Evli advisers
The picture ahs changed drastically since Erdogan won another term as president a year ago and installed a market-friendly team to steer economic policy, while mending ties with the west.
Since then, the central bank boosted the benchmark rate to 5-% from 8.5% and built up foreign currency reserves and Treasury & Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek started to tighten fiscal policy. The central bank predicts inflation will end at the year 38%, compared with 69.8% last month.
President has repeatedly vowed to stay in the course, foreign investors have responded, pouring in a net of $4 billion into Turkish equities since June 2023, according to weekly flow data complied by Bloomberg.
5/16
Bloomberg
1) Putin and Xi Vow to Step up fight to counter US ‘containment’
2) Europe’s Banks find breaking up with russia is hard to do
3) US inflation data was accidentally released 30 mins early
5/17
Bloomberg
1. Asian Stocks Fall on Fresh Signs of China Weakness: Markets Wrap
- mainland China, Australia and South Korea declined, while Japanese shares trimmed early gains.
- Gauge of region's shares falls for first time in six sessions
- Swaps market now anticipates just one Fed rate cut in 2024
- Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index swung between gains and losses near a nine-month high, as robust results supported Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Baidu Inc.
- Treasuries were little changed in Asian trading, while Australian and New Zealand yield climbed, tracking moves in US government
2. Hess investors Advised by Glass Lewis to Back Chevron Deal
- Advice is at odds with report issued by another proxy advisor
- Dueling recommendations add uncertainty to $53 billion deal
3. China Regulators to Discuss Property Aid With Banks Friday
- State Council plans to hold video conference in the morning
- Seeks feedback on proposal to buy millions of unsold homes
4. Investors Still Flocking to Vietnam Despite Political Upheaval
- Foreign investment climbs after hitting record in 2023
- Major policies expected to remain unchanged despite turmoil
5. Oil set to eke out weekly gain as supply and inflation set tone
- Competing drivers for crude keep week’s price action muted
- Brent rises above $83 a barrel after two-day gain of about 1%
6. China home prices fall at faster pace despite revival efforts
- Month-on-month declines in April were steepest in a decade
- Government is seeking to address excess housing inventories
7. Top HSBC shareholder ping and exploring ways to cut $13 Billion Stake
- Internal team at insurer is considering various options
- Ping An unsuccessfully pushed for HSBC to separate Asia arm
8. Asia hedge funds used post-cpi dollar dip as buying opportunity
- Funds show little desire to enter short positions: traders
- Fed officials reiterate higher-for-longer interest rate mantra
9. Chinese property stocks rally on hope for more Policy support
- Key government officials to meet Friday on support policies
- Bloomberg gauge of Chinese real estate stocks rises 2.8%
10. China’s first special bond sale likely to see solid demand
- Beijing to auction 30–year ultra-long debt on Friday
- China selling 1 trillion yuan of special debt to fund stimulus
11. China rebound gets more lopsided as factories hum, shoppers lag
- Retail sales expanded 2.3% in April, lowest since 2022
- Production accelerates, driving economy’s two-speed recovery
5/18
Bloomberg
1. Dow makes history to close week above 40,000 mark
- Blue-chip gauge hits milestone in final stretch of US trading
- VIX index closes at lowest since 2019 as S&P 500 grinds higher
2. Russia Froze Deutsche Mank, UniCredit Assets in Gazprom JV Case
- A Russian court has frozen local assets of Germany’s Deutsche Bank AG and Italy’s Unicredit SpA under lawsuits totaling over 1 billion euros filed by Gazprom PJSC venture
- “UniCredit has been made aware of the filing with Russian Court in relation to the RusKhimAlyans V UC GmbH court case to which AO UC Bank has been joined,”
- Milan-based UniCredit, which operates in Russia through a subsidiary with some 3,100 employees and more than 50 branches, says it has set aside more that 800 million euros against defaults in russia since 2022 and has cut back its loan portfolio by two-thirds.
3. Nippon Steel Ups effort to woo US steel workers, Politicians
- Sending vice chair and executive vice president to pittsburgh to meet people
- dispatching technical terms to review US steel mill as the firms assesses how it can boost investment and labor commitments to convince union leaders and authorities of the deal’s merits, the people said
- Nippon Steel agreed to buy US Steel in December, but opposition from the United Steelworkers and President Joe Biden has left investors uncertain of the deal’s fate.
- Options are said to include upping $1.4 billion capex pledge
- USV leaders have rebuffed company efforts to continue talks
- Another American steelmaker, Cleveland-Cliffs Inc, is hoping US authorities block Nippon Steel’s takeuover. Cliffs CEO Lourenco Goncalves said he stil wants to buy US Steel or some of its assets after losing a bidding war to the Japanese firm.
4. Europe’s aging population is a money magnet for some investors
- Crematoriums and morticians being bought up by larger firms
- PEF funded Funecap IDF SAS has spent around 1b euros to buy more that 300 crematoriums and funeral centers mainy in europe
- Europe’s cremation market, in particular, benefits from high organic growth of 5% and 7% per year on average, he said. Incinerations have boomed in popularity. Particularly in nations where catholic roots eased
- Others acquired by Funecap: Facultatieve Techologies Ltd, Rhein Taunus Krematorium GmbH
- Crematorium and Mortician businesses “Family owners are retiring and their children no longer want to run the business”
- Sector growth linked to rising deaths, shifting cultural norms
5. A heavy monsoon season is great news for these indian stocks
- Motorcycle manufacturers, farm-equipment makers and producers of fast-moving consumer goods
- Recovery in rural stocks is also welcome news for India’s broader stock market whose stellar rally in recent years was disproportionately spurred by investment-heavy firms benefiting from the government’s higher infrastructure spending.
6. Spot Silver tops $30 an ounce to hit highest since 2013
- rally accelerated Friday, helped by spillover sentiment in the broader metals markets.
“Copper and gold close in on records as metals mayhem continues”
- Investors remain net sellers of physically backed silver ETFs.
- although silver’s rally outpaced gold’s, it’s still relatively cheap.
- the two precious metals move largely in tandem as both offer similar macro=and currency hedging properties. With gold hitting a record on central bank buying, retail interest in china and a resurgence in bets that lower US interest rates are on the way, silver has gone along for the ride.
- Silver has a dual character, valued both for its uses as financial asset and an industrial input, including for clean-energy technologies.
The metal is key ingredient in solar panels. Shortage soon.
7. Emerging currencies lose steam on dampening rate-cut bets.
8. Goldman sees fear of underperforming, as retail crowd returns.